Research
Working Papers
Multitasking, Incentives, and Police Officer Behavior [Job Market Paper]
Abstract
I study the consequences of incomplete contracts in the high-stakes, multitasking setting of policing. In my context, highway patrol troopers face salient traffic enforcement targets, but must balance their effort on enforcement production with completing other non-enforcement responsibilities. While the enforcement target induces trooper effort, it simultaneously distorts trooper behavior and generates a range of socially suboptimal outcomes, including lower quality enforcement, disparities unwarranted on the basis of collision risk, and delayed completion of non-enforcement responsibilities. Given significant trooper-specific heterogeneity, I develop an approach to optimally assign troopers to locations that reduces the negative externalities produced by the existing incentive scheme. In contrast, alternative personnel policies which ignore this heterogeneity improve only a subset of outcomes.Measuring Discrimination using Natural Experiments with Nikhil Rao
Abstract
Disparities in high-stakes decisions are common, but difficult to interpret as discrimination if unobservable group differences exist. We show how to use natural experiments and a binary instrumental variable strategy to measure discrimination, adjusted for group differences in unobserved potential outcomes. Our approach does not require random assignment to decision-makers, a prerequisite for existing techniques. We study discrimination in two settings, using different forms of natural experiments in each, and highlight how key assumptions vary by empirical strategy. First, we measure racial discrimination in misdemeanor prosecution in Washington using a difference-in-difference design, generated by a county budget cut. Before the cut, which reduced prosecution rates, we find no evidence of discrimination in prosecution conditional on unobserved potential recidivism. Afterwards, white defendants were more likely to be prosecuted than minority defendants. The gap is driven by prosecutors dropping low quality cases, which were more common among minority defendants, in response to the cut. These patterns suggest prosecutors attenuated disparities created in prior stages of the criminal legal system. Second, we study socio-economic discrimination in student grade promotion in Michigan public schools using a regression discontinuity design. Economically disadvantaged students near a test score cut-off were promoted at lower rates than non-disadvantaged students, even conditional on unobserved academic ability.The Direct and Intergenerational Effects of Criminal History-Based Safety Net Bans in the U.S. with Michael Mueller-Smith, Kevin Schnepel, and Caroline Walker
NBER Working Paper No. 31983.
Abstract
We study the lifetime banning, as introduced by United States Public Law 104-193, of individuals convicted of felony drug offenses after August 22, 1996 from ever receiving future SNAP benefits. Using a regression discontinuity design that leverages CJARS criminal history records with federal administrative and survey data, we estimate the causal impact of safety net assistance bans, finding significant reductions in SNAP benefit take-up, which creates unintentional spillovers to spouses and children and persist long after ban revocations occurred. While we observe limited changes to other adult outcomes, children's short- and long-run outcomes worsen, especially those impacted at young ages.Agency Incentives and Disparate Revenue Collection: Evidence from Chicago Parking Tickets with Elizabeth Luh and Benjamin Pyle
Abstract
We leverage a sharp 2012 parking fine increase for failing to purchase vehicle registration to examine disparate ticketing patterns across enforcement agencies in Chicago. Using an event-study framework, we find that Chicago police increased their enforcement of car registration non-compliance in Black relative to non-Black neighborhoods, with no observed disparate response for non-police enforcement agencies. This disparity is unexplained by differences in non-compliance and is instead driven by departmental revenue incentives and lower marginal search costs in Black neighborhoods. Disparate enforcement also exacerbated existing gaps in financial instability, including increased rates of ticket non-payment and bankruptcy filings in Black neighborhoods.Publications
Gender Differences in Political Career Progression with Ryan Brown, Hani Mansour, and Stephen D. O’Connell
Accepted at Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.
Abstract
This paper quantifies the gender gap in the returns to electoral success on the career progression of novice U.S. state legislators. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that narrowly winning a state legislature election doubles the probability that a female politician will later compete for a higher-level legislative seat compared to narrowly elected male politicians. While the gender gap in the effect of local political experience on winning a higher-level election also favors women, it is not precisely estimated. The gender difference in the effect of winning a state legislature seat is larger when serving in positions that closely resemble the responsibilities and workload of higher-level positions. We conclude that the pathway from local to higher-level political offices functions at least as effectively for women as for men. Therefore, supporting the recruitment, funding, and campaigning of women in local elections can be an effective strategy to increase their representation at the highest levels of government.Voting and Political Participation in the Aftermath of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic with Hani Mansour
Journal of Human Resources, 59(6): 1769-1794, 2024. Pre-publication version, Online appendix
Abstract
This study examines the effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the public health response to it on political behaviors. Using data on elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and leveraging cross-district variation in HIV/AIDS mortality during the period 1983-1987, we find that, beginning with the early 1990s, exposure to HIV/AIDS mortality increased the vote share, voter turnout, and contributions made to Democratic candidates. The increased support for Democrats is larger in competitive districts. The results are consistent with HIV/AIDS mortality impacting cultural attitudes and leading to broader and persistent changes in voting patterns and political participation.JUE Insight: Condominium Development Does Not Lead to Gentrification with Leah Boustan, Robert A. Margo, Matthew M. Miller, and Justin Steil
Journal of Urban Economics, 133: 103524, 2023. Pre-publication version, Online appendix
Abstract
Many politicians and voters believe that condominium development hastens gentrification. Indeed, there is a strong positive correlation between the presence of condos in a neighborhood and resident socio-economic status. We leverage the introduction of municipal regulations to study the causal effect of condo conversions on neighborhood attributes. Cities that restricted condo conversions experience a persistent decline in the condo share of the housing stock, relative to their neighboring suburbs and compared to metropolitan areas without such restrictions, even at city/suburb borders. Yet, areas with a higher condo share due to local regulations do not have residents with higher income or education levels.Work in Progress
Intergenerational Effects of Parental Job Loss in the U.S., with Andrew Joung
FSRDC Project #2854. Results undergoing U.S. Census Bureau disclosure review.
Abstract
Leveraging administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we investigate the intergenerational effects of parental job loss on children's long-run outcomes by exploiting job losses during mass layoffs. Our analysis focuses on the long-term earnings trajectories and criminal justice involvement for both displaced parents and their children. We provide the first quasi-experimental estimates of the intergenerational effects of parental job loss on children’s future interactions with the U.S. criminal justice system. Through our comprehensive data linkages, we explore various mechanisms, including changes in household composition, migration, children's educational attainment, the mediating effects of the social safety net, and the transmission of labor market opportunities through parent connections.Long-Run and Intergenerational Effects of the Great Recession on Criminal Justice Involvement, with Andrew Joung
FSRDC Project #2854. Results undergoing U.S. Census Bureau disclosure review.
Abstract
Using individual-level panel data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we exploit spatial variation in Great Recession exposure to estimate its effects on interactions with the criminal justice system. Using an event study model, we present the first quasi-experiment estimates of the Great Recession’s long-run effects on adults and its intergenerational effects on children. We explore various mechanisms, including changes in migration, earnings, employment, and educational attainment.Examining Interventions to Improve Outcomes of Justice-Involved Individuals, with Nikhil Rao
FSRDC Project #2957.
Discrimination and Permissible Considerations in Bail Decisions